| An Interview with the College Republican National Committee |
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| Wednesday, 16 January 2008 | |
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Page 1 of 2 ![]() washingtonpost.com I recently had the chance to talk to Ethan Eilon, the Executive Director of the College Republican National Committee. Here’s what he had to say about the primary season so far. EE: I don't think they have changed the Republican field too dramatically in the short term. No one has dropped out as of yet, but people have been shifting around in terms of frontrunner status. While the early states have been exciting, there is still a very contentious race out there. TCW: What big surprises came out of Iowa and New Hampshire? EE: The margins were probably the biggest surprise. That both Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain won by such decisive margins in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, was contradictory to what the polls were suggesting that we should expect. TCW: Governor Mike Huckabee is proving to be something of a dark horse candidate. How is he changing the race for the other candidates and the voters? EE: Governor Huckabee's candidacy has offered some contrast to some of the other candidates in the race. He has a significant amount of executive service under his belt as well as a strong relationship with the socially conservative community. I think he offers an important viewpoint within the party and also highlights another segment of the extremely diverse, well-qualified group of candidates that the party has to offer. TCW: Will Senator McCain be able to maintain the lead that he took in NH as he goes into the next set of primaries? EE: That's pretty tough to say. Senator McCain looks very competitive in Michigan, and he is shaping up to play well in South Carolina. If he does well in both of those contests, it's likely that we'll see a continued, upward momentum in his numbers in Florida and the February 5th states. Secondly, all signs suggest that the momentum that he has gained in the polls is translating into increased fundraising, which will be crucial in big media market states like Florida and many of the February 5th states, including New Jersey, New York, and California. TCW: In exit polls, some discrepancy seems to exist between candidates' ‘electability' and the candidates for whom the people are actually voting. Which will be more important to the parties when electing a candidate? EE: Exit polls are by no means scientific, so it's important not to overestimate their value. But I think that average voters consider themselves to be very independent. They want to vote for the candidate to whom they feel most connected and who best represents them, even if they don't believe that their choice will be that of the majority. TCW: What roll will college students play in this election? How is voter turnout amongst college-aged people affecting or likely to affect the outcome of the primaries? EE: College students specifically and younger voters as a whole will play a critical part in the 2008 elections. We are the fastest growing segment of the voting population, and we are turning out in steadily increasing proportions year after year. It's difficult to say precisely how the youth vote will play out in the remaining primaries. In Iowa, we saw a large segment of the youth out for Senator Obama and Governor Huckabee. In New Hampshire, we saw increasing numbers out for Senators Clinton and McCain. So much like all voters, the younger factions have varying concerns based on geographic and socioeconomic issues. |
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